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Conference Board Employment Trends Index Increased in October

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Conference Board Employment Trends Index Increased in October

Upward Momentum Continues

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index increased in October. The index now stands at 123.09, up from 121.91 (an upward revision) in September. This represents a 7.7% gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

"The Employment Trends Index continues to increase rapidly, with all eight components improving in October," said Gad Levanon, Managing Director of Macroeconomic and Labor Market Research at The Conference Board. "The index is signaling solid job growth through the winter. As a result, we could see the unemployment rate reach its natural rate of 5.5% by early Spring."

"We could see the unemployment rate reach its natural rate of 5.5% by early Spring."

October's increase in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from all eight components. In order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, Number of Temporary Employees, Industrial Production, Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get," Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, and Job Openings.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

 

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