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Employment Trends Index increases again in August

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Employment Trends Index increases again in August

Employment trends index posts a healthy gain after slowing in recent months.

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index increased in August for a second consecutive month. The index now stands at 128.82, up from 127.64 in June (a downward revision). The change represented a 4.5% gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

"The unemployment rate is likely to go below 5% by year's end."

"The large increase in the Employment Trends Index in August suggests that a significant moderation in employment growth is unlikely to occur in the coming months," said Gad Levanon, Managing Director of Macroeconomic and Labor Market Research at The Conference Board. "With solid job growth expected to continue, the unemployment rate is likely to go below 5% by year's end."

August's increase in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from four of the eight components. In order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get," Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Number of Temporary Employees, and Industrial Production.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.