Home | Growth | Philly Fed: Economists grow more optimistic on US economy

Philly Fed: Economists grow more optimistic on US economy

By
Font size: Decrease font Enlarge font
Philly Fed:  Economists grow more optimistic on US economy

Growth estimates for quarters 2 through 4 revised upward.

The outlook for growth over the next three quarters looks stronger now than it did three months ago, according to 42 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Growth this quarter will be 3.3% at an annual rate, up from the previous estimate of 3.0%.

Third-quarter growth will be 2.9%, an upward revision from the previous projection of 2.8%, while fourth-quarter growth will be 3.2%, up from 2.7% in the last survey. 

At the same time, surprisingly weak historical first-quarter growth is pulling down the survey’s current projection for growth in the annual-average level of real GDP in 2014, from 2.8% in the last survey to 2.4% in this survey.

The forecasters see an improved outlook for the unemployment rate over the next three years. The forecasters predict that the unemployment rate will be an annual average of 6.4% in 2014, before falling to 5.9% in 2015, 5.6% in 2016, and 5.5% in 2017. The projections for 2014, 2015, and 2016 are below those of the last survey.

Share this:

On the jobs front, the forecasters have revised upward their estimates for job gains in 2014. The forecasters’ projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 196,500 in 2014, up from the previous estimate of 187,700, and 202,700 in 2015, as the table below shows. (These annual-average estimates are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.)

 

Join PRESIDENT&CEO on LinkedIn

Subscribe to comments feed Comments (0 posted)

total: | displaying:

Post your comment

  • Bold
  • Italic
  • Underline
  • Quote

Please enter the code you see in the image:

Captcha