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Economists: Expect “lackluster” US growth

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Economists:  Expect “lackluster” US growth

NABE economists expect 2.0% - 2.5% growth over next five years.


Many of the nation’s economists are fairly pessimistic about US growth in the coming years.

According to a survey of economists undertaken by the National Association for Business Economics, GDP growth in 2015 should come in at 2.2% in 2015, while rising slightly to 2.6% in 2016. GDP growth in 2014 was 2.4%.

“This lackluster growth potential is the consequence of tepid productivity gains."

“NABE’s December Outlook Survey panelists have lowered their forecasts for economic growth in 2015 following a slowdown in the third quarter,” according to NABE President Lisa Emsbo-Mattingly, CBE, director of research, Global Asset Allocation at Fidelity Investments. “The panel’s median forecast is for the economy to grow 2.2% net of inflation from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2015—a slight decrease from the 2.5% forecasted in the October 2015 survey. Growth is expected to improve slightly next year—to 2.6%—although that represents a small downgrade from the previous survey’s 2016 forecast.

“Looking further ahead, two-thirds of the panelists expect potential economic growth to average between 2.0% and 2.5% during the next five years,” Emsbo-Mattingly added. “This lackluster growth potential is the consequence of tepid productivity gains which have been hindered by low capital formation, financial, environmental, and other regulatory constraints, low innovation, and workforce development/education issues.”

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