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Forecast: Modest 2.8% holiday lift for retailers

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Digital growth driving increase.

Retail analytics firm RetailNext Inc. today announced a positive forecast for US retail performance over the November through December Holiday period, predicting a 2.8% year-over-year lift in sales, driven in large part by a 16.2% increase in YoY sales through digital channels.

Based on retail trends and broader macro-economic data, the forecast for US retail stores during November and December includes:

"Retailers that reimagine Thanksgiving will start the season strong."

  • US retail sales increase 2.8% overall (excluding automobiles and petroleum)
    • Digital sales increase of 16.2%;
    • Brick-and-mortar sales varying widely by segment, with increases in electronics, fast fashion, outlets and warehouse/clubs, but decreases of 7-8% across most others;
    • The top seasonal performers will likely skew results; a few big winners among the majority of underperformers.
  • Digital sales grow from 10.5% to 11.9% of total retail sales.
  • Brick-and-mortar store traffic to fall 8.1%, with conversion up 0.6 points and Sales per Shopper up 3.5%.

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